截止目前，学者们对亏损上市公司相关问题的探讨大多数集中在对其亏损原因的分析及对其进行盈余管理的动机和方法的研究上，涉及亏损上市公司价值评估问题的研究却很少。年报亏损是否就意味着上市公司的股价下跌呢？会计盈余是否能够反映亏损上市公司的真实价值呢？亏损公司的价值内涵究竟是指什么呢？亏损的持续性、年报披露的各种题材事件会对亏损上市公司的价值产生影响吗？如果会，其影响机理又是怎么样的呢？国外有学者对此类问题的回答给出了一些解释，如放弃期权理论、调整期权理论、违约期权理论等，然而中国的资本市场还不太成熟，带有浓厚的政治色彩和行政干预，这些理论是否能够适应于国内的资本市场？如果不能，又该如何去评估中国亏损上市公司的价值呢？本文正是带着对这些问题的回答，对中国亏损上市公司的财务价值驱动因素展开了深入研究。笔者认为投资者之所以愿意承担亏损股较其他股票更高的风险，是因为亏损股存在巨大的潜在价值，由于各种题材面因素的存在，一旦时机成熟，亏损上市公司很有可能会发生从乌鸦到凤凰的“蜕变”，从而给投资者带来巨额收益。因此，本文基于亏损类型的细分，运用投资者预期理论、财务价值评估理论分析和探讨了各类亏损上市公司的财务价值驱动因素，并对各驱动因素对不同类型亏损上市公司财务价值的影响机理进行了理论分析和实证研究，最后提出了相关的政策建议。具体而言，全文可分以下几个部分：
第一部分绪论（包括第一章），阐述了本文的研究背景、意义、研究内容，提出了本文的研究思路和整体框架，界定了这一研究领域的基本概念，为后续的研究提供了必要的理论铺垫和分析前提。
第二部分理论基础和文献综述（包括第二章）。首先，提出并分析了投资者预期理论、财务价值评估理论等，为后续的研究奠定理论基础。然后，对国内外用于亏损上市公司价值评估的各种理论进行了综述和评析。具体从单纯的会计盈余与股票价格相关性研究阶段、影响会计盈余价值相关性因素的探讨阶段、亏损上市公司股价影响因素的探讨阶段三个方面展开了述评。
第三部分实证研究（包括第三、四、五、六、七章）
第三章分别从亏损历史状态、公司财务状况、股利支付情况及投资者预期因素四个层面选取了18个指标作为备选变量，并运用logistic过程中向前逐步回归的方法最终选择了7个对因变量影响显著的自变量，然后选取2005年度发生亏损的168家上市公司为样本，分别对亏损逆转样本组（127家）和非逆转样本组（41家）进行了Logistic回归检验，并建立了最终的基于Logistic回归分析的上市公司亏损逆转识别模型。
第四章首先对愿景型亏损公司财务价值的驱动因素进行了理论分析，然后以2003～2007年度发生亏损的满足条件EPS<0、BVPS≥0、EPCF≥0的愿景型亏损上市公司为样本，实证检验了每股盈余、每股净资产、每股经营现金净流量、重组事件预期、高管变更预期、股利支付事件、关联方交易预期及大股东营救预期对愿景型亏损上市公司财务价值的影响。研究发现：每股盈余对愿景型亏损上市公司财务价值有显著的负向驱动效应；每股经营现金净流量、重组事件预期、股利支付事件、大股东营救预期对愿景型亏损上市公司财务价值有显著的正向驱动效应；每股净资产、高管变更预期及关联方交易预期对愿景型亏损上市公司财务价值并无明显的驱动效应。
第五章首先对先予型亏损公司财务价值的驱动因素进行了理论分析，然后以2003～2007年度发生亏损的满足条件EPS<0、BVPS≥0、EPCF<0的先予型亏损上市公司为样本，实证检验了每股盈余、每股净资产、每股经营现金净流量、营销投入、销售增长率、培训支出、研发支出、知识能力开发费用发生与否、专项资产支出等对先予型亏损上市公司财务价值的影响。研究发现，每股净资产、研发支出、培训支出及销售增长率等对先予型亏损上市公司财务价值有显著的正向驱动效应，每股盈余、每股经营现金净流量、营销投入、知识能力开发费用发生与否、专项资产支出等因素对其无明显的驱动效应。
第六章首先对周期型亏损公司财务价值的驱动因素进行了理论分析，然后以2003～2007年度发生亏损的满足条件EPS<0、BVPS<0、EPCF≥0的周期型亏损上市公司为样本，实证检验了每股盈余、资产质量、权益账面价值（调整后的每股净资产）、亏损持续性、现金流量（每股经营现金净流量）、经济周期预期、行业发展状况预期等因素对周期型亏损上市公司价值的影响。研究发现，EPS、权益账面价值、亏损状态的持续性、行业发展状况预期对周期型亏损公司的财务价值均不存在明显的驱动效应，每股经营现金净流量、资产质量、经济周期预期对周期型亏损上市公司财务价值有显著的正向驱动效应。
第七章首先对临危型亏损公司财务价值的驱动因素进行了理论分析，然后以2003～2007年度发生亏损的满足条件EPS<0、BVPS<0、EPCF<0的临危型亏损上市公司为样本，实证检验了每股盈余、每股经营现金净流量、卖壳预期、清算期权价值、政府补救、债务展期或和解等因素对临危型亏损上市公司财务价值的影响。研究发现，会计盈余、每股经营现金净流量、债务展期或和解对临危型亏损公司的财务价值无显著影响，卖壳预期、清算期权价值、政府补救等因素对临危型亏损上市公司财务价值有显著的正向驱动效应。其原因可能是对于临危型亏损公司，投资者并不是关注其公司自身的盈利能力，而是更多的关注公司外部的因素，如壳资源价值、清算期权价值、政府补救等因素。
第四部分研究结论及政策建议（包括第八章）
第八章对全文的主要结论进行了概括，指出了本文研究的局限性，在此基础上对未来的研究方向进行了展望，最后提出了相关的政策建议。
本文主要的创新之处在于：
（1）在比较和分析各类公司价值概念的基础上，提出和明确了公司财务价值概念的内涵，并建立了以修正后的财务价值Q系数模型表示财务价值的大小。本文提出的财务价值概念同时从公司外部视角和内部视角去分析公司的整体价值，这里的财务价值既包含了从公司外部视角看到的外部支援价值，也包含了从公司内部视角看到的内部潜在价值，因此，这里的财务价值概念可以说是市场价值概念和内在价值概念二者的结合体。
（2）首次提出了亏损异质、亏损轨道等概念，考虑到亏损公司的异质性，从每股净资产和每股经营现金净流量两个维度将亏损公司划分为愿景型、先予型、周期型和临危型亏损四种类型，并运用四象限分析法对各类亏损公司的财务特征进行了细分研究。
（3）提出并建立了基于Logistic回归分析的上市公司亏损逆转识别模型，该模型考虑了亏损公司过去的历史、现在的状态和未来的发展，同时从公司内部运营、投资者外部预期的角度去分析影响亏损公司发生亏损逆转的因素，通过实证研究最终确定了影响亏损上市公司发生逆转与否的关键性因素有：公司当年是否首次发生亏损、当年亏损额是否超过前三年的累计盈余、亏损当年是否发放股利、公司当年的销售增长率、销售净利率、资产负债率情况及是否发生重组事件等。
（4）运用投资者预期理论、财务价值评估理论对亏损上市公司的财务价值驱动因素进行了较为深入、系统地研究，考虑的角度既包括微观层面的内部变量，如每股盈余、每股经营现金净流量、资产负债率、重组等因素，也包括宏观层面的外部变量，如政府补贴、经济周期、行业景气度等因素，揭示了各类亏损上市公司财务价值驱动因素的差异性。
关键词：亏损异质 财务价值 驱动因素 亏损逆转 投资者预期
Up to now, scholars’ exploration related to loss listed companies most focus on the analysis of the reasons for their loss and their motives and methods of earnings management, involving less study on assessing the value of a loss of listed companies. Does a loss in annual reports mean the loss listed company's share price fall? Does accounting profit reflect a loss of a listed company's true value? What is the value of loss listed companies? The continuity of loss, a variety of topical events by the report disclosed, would have an impact on the value of loss listed companies?If so, what is the impacting mechanism? Some scholars abroad gave a number of explanations, such as the theory of abandon option, the theory of adjustment option, the theory of breach contract options. However, China's capital market is not mature, with strong political and administrative intervention. Whether these theories can be adapted to the domestic capital market? If not, how to evaluate the value of loss listed companies in China?This article is with answers to these questions, carrying out in-depth study on value drivers of the loss listed companies in China. I think that investors willing to bear the loss than that of other stocks higher risk due to the existence of a huge potential value of loss stock. Because of a variety of surface material factors, and when the time comes, the loss of listed companies is likely to occur the "transformation" from Crow to Phoenix, providing substantial returns for investors. As a result, on the base of subdivision on loss, from the point of view of the market investors’ expectation, this article used the theory of expectation and financial evaluation and explored and analyzed various types of value drivers of the loss listed company and carried out an in-depth study on the mechanism how different drivers affect the value of different types of loss listed companies. On this basis, this article put forward relevant policy recommendations. In particular, the full text can be divided into the following sections.
The first part was the introduction (including the first chapter).It elaborated the research background, purpose, meaning and content of this article, raised the research ideas, compared and analyzed the various concepts involving in the value of companies; put forward the concept of financial value, overall framework and innovation. It defined the basic concepts of the field for follow-up research provided the necessary theoretical groundwork and the premise of analysis.
The second part was the theoretical analysis (including the second chapters). It made clear the connotation of the financial value, analyzed the theory of investors’ expectation, the theory of value assessment, and summarized and analyzed all types of theories of value assessment for the loss of listed companies at home and abroad. Specifically it was divided into three aspects, such as, the correlation study stage between simply accounting earnings and stock price, the exploratory stage of the relevant factors affecting the accounting earnings value and the exploratory stage of the factors affecting the value of a loss of listed companies.
The third part was the empirical research (including the three, Fourth, V, VI, VII). The three chapter from four levels including the history of losses, the company's financial position, pay dividends and investors expectation factor, selected 18 targets as variable options, and in the process of using logistic regression methods to choose from the 4 dependent variables significantly impacting variables, and then selected 168 listed companies loss occurred in the 2005 as samples, carried out Logistic regression testing respectively to loss reverse sample group (127) and non-reversal sample group (41), and established the final-based Logistic regression loss reverse identify model of the listed company.
The fourth chapter first theoretically analyzed financial value drivers for vision-based loss companies, and then selected vision-based loss listed companies meeting the conditions “EPS<0, BVPS≥0, EPCF≥0” from 2003 to 2007 occurred loss as samples, empirically analyzed how earnings per share, per share net asset, per share of net operating cash flow, the reconstruction of the events anticipated, expected related-party transactions, expected executives change and major shareholders expected to rescue affect the value of vision-based loss listed companies. The study found that earnings per share had significant negative drive to the financial value of a vision-based loss listed company, per share of net operating cash flow, the reconstruction of the events anticipated, the dividend payment, shareholders are expected to rescue have significantly positive effects-driven to the financial value vision-based loss listed companies.
Chapter V first theoretically analyzed financial value drivers for Xianyu-based loss companies, and then selected Xianyu-based loss companies meeting the conditions “EPS<0, BVPS≥0, EPCF<0” from 2003 to 2007 occurred loss as samples, carried out empirical analysis, tested that the earnings per share, per share net asset, per share of net operating cash flow, marketing investment, training expenses, knowledge and capability development costs occurred or not, the assets of the special expenses, and so on, all affect the value of Xianyu-based loss listed companies. The study found that per share net asset, spending R & D, training expenses and sales growth rate of expenditure had significant positive effects-driven to the financial value of Xianyu-based loss listed companies, earnings per share, per share net operating cash flow, marketing investment, knowledge and capacity development expenses occurred or not, special capital expenditure had no significant driving role.
Chapter VI first theoretically analyzed financial value drivers for cycle-based loss companies, and then selected cycle-based loss companies meeting the conditions “EPS<0, BVPS<0, EPCF≥0” from 2003 to 2007 occurred loss as samples, empirically tested that earnings per share, asset quality, book value of rights and interests (adjusted net assets per share), loss continuity, cash flow (per share of net operating cash flow), expected cycle of the economy, expected development of the industry and so on, all affected the value of cycle-based loss listed companies. The study found, EPS, the book value of rights and interests , continuity of loss state, expected development of the industry had no significant effect to the financial value of cycle-based loss companies, cash flow from operations, asset quality, the expected economic cycle had significant positive effect of driving to the financial value of cycle-based loss listed companies.
Chapter VII first theoretically analyzed financial value drivers for critical loss companies, and then selected critical loss companies meeting the conditions “EPS<0, BVPS<0, EPCF<0” from 2003 to 2007 occurred loss as samples, empirically tested that earnings per share, per share of net operating cash flow, expected to sell the shell, the liquidation value of the options (adjusted net assets per share), governmental remedy, debt settlement or extension and so on, all affected the value of critical loss listed companies. The study found that accounting earnings, per share of net operating cash-flow had no significant impact on the financial value of critical loss listed companies, the expectation to sell the shell, the liquidation value of the options, the governmental remedy had significant positive drive effect to financial value of the critical loss listed companies. The reason may be that for critical for-loss company, investors are not concerned about their own company's profitability, but more concerned about the external factors, such as the value of the shell resource, the liquidation value of the options, the government remedy, and so on.
The fourth part of the research included conclusions and policy proposals (including ChapterⅧ). ChapterⅧ summarized the main conclusions of the full text. At the same time, it pointed out the future prospects for research on the basis of limitations of this paper, made the final relevant policy recommendations.
The major innovation of this article is shown as following:
(1) It put forwad and made clear the concept of the company's financial value on the basis of in the comparison and analysis of the various the concept of companies’ value, and established a revised model of the financial value of the Q index to represent the size of the financial value. It put forward the concept of the value of financial companies at the same time from the perspective of external and internal perspective to analyze the value of the company as a whole, where the financial value inclueded both the value of company's external support from the outside perspective to see but also company's internal potential value from the perspective of that, so the concept of the financial value was regarded as a combination of the concept of market value and intrinsic value.
(2) It brought up for the first time the concept of loss heterogeneous, loss track of and so on. Taking into account the heterogeneity of the companies' loss, it divided loss corporpations into four types of vision-type, investment-type, cycle-type and critical-type loss from the two dimensions of net asset per share and net operating cash flow per share. And it made a loss segmentation study on the various nature and features of various companies using four-quadrant analysis.
(3) It established a model based on Logistic regression analysis to identify loss reversal of the listed company. The model took into account the loss company's history in the past, current status and future development, and analyzed of the factors influening the reversal of the loss companies in terms of the company's internal operations and the external point of investor’s expectations at the same time. It concluded the key factors to determine the possibility of the reversal of loss listed companies, including whether the companies’ loss was the first occurred, whether the loss was more than the accumulated surplus three years ago, whether the dividend was paid, the company's sales growth, sales margin, asset liability ratio and whether the re-occurrence of the incident, and so on.
(4) It analyzed the drivers to the company's financial value applying the theory of investor’s expectations and assession the financial value. It considered the perspective of both micro-level internal variables, such as earnings per share, per share, net operating cash flow, assets liabilities, restructuring and other factors, and the macro level of external variables, such as government subsidies, economic cycles, such factors as the degree of economic sectors. It revealed the difference of key factors driving the financial value of various loss companies.
Key words:Loss heterogeneous Financial value Drivers Loss reversal Investor’s expectations
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